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The China Blog

Chinese Equities: Four reasons why the worst case scenario is priced in

Stefan Scheurer: 2 February 2012

While China’s growth is slowing somewhat (the country is experiencing a “soft landing”), Chinese activity is not cooling significantly in our view. Quite the contrary; China is still registering one of the highest GDP growth rates world-wide.
Chinese Equities: Four reasons why the worst case scenario is priced in

Over the last 12 months, Chinese equity prices have tumbled by more than 20%. This was the largest annual loss since 2001, apart from the losses registered during the 2008 financial-market crisis. The reasons appear obvious: developments in the real-estate market, the shadow banking system and local government debt. While these factors are likely to remain in place in 2012, current Chinese equity prices seem to have priced them in to a large extent.
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Product Update: Allianz RCM China

Product update: Allianz RCM China

January 2012
Allianz RCM China Class A USD (“the Fund”) outperformed its benchmark, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) China Total Return (Net) index (the benchmark) by 1.46% for the past three months (October to December 2011) and was ranked 8th out of 57 peer funds during the same period.
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China's monetary policy gets more expansionary

China’s monetary policy gets more expansionary

Stefan Scheurer: 21 December 2011

The persistent EU government debt crisis and fears of a global recession do not only shape current developments on the international capital markets, but also appear to affect the Chinese economy. Not only Chinese observers are concerned that the country’s economy might slow down more strongly than expected (for example due to a dip in exports and in the local real-estate market) or even drop into a recession (“hard landing”)...
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China in the fast lane to overtake the US

China in the fast lane to overtake the US

Guido Steil: 24 November 2011
This week we saw Jim O’Neill put his neck on the line and predict that China could overtake the US as the world’s leading economy by 2027. I agree with this forecast and would even suggest China could become the world’s largest economy even sooner...
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Product Update

Product update: Allianz RCM China

November 2011
Allianz RCM China Class A Distribution (USD) (“the Fund”) outperformed its benchmark, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) China Total Return (Net), by 0.65% in October 2011. During the month, the Fund ranked 15th position among 58 peer funds (1). The outperformance was due to stock selections of a leading integrated information technology (IT) service provider in China, a provider of wireless solutions and a leading integrated oilfield services provider in the offshore China market.
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8 reasons why China looks set for a soft landing

8 reasons why China looks set for a soft landing

Stefan Scheurer: 18 November 2011
A sharp correction on the Chinese real estate market; increasing indebtedness of local governments; a larger ratio of non-performing loans on the balance sheets of Chinese banks; or a collapse of the shadow banking system. Any one of these factors, which make up an essential part of the basic conversation about China, could result in a decline in economic growth. But are concerns as to whether the Chinese economy could face a so-called "hard landing" justified?
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Marketwatch

12.03.12
Decisive Insight by Helen Lam

At the China's annual National People's Congress earlier this week, Premier Wen cut the growth target to 7.5% from 8%. This is the first time since 2004 that the target is set lower than 8% and led to investors' concern about slower economic outlook in China.

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China data announcements

Our outlook for week 12:

Tuesday 03.04.12
China: Purchasing Managers' Index Non-Manufacturing (March) (prior: 48.4)

Thursday 05.04.12
China: HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index Services (March) (53.9)

Friday 06.04.12
China: Business Climate Index (Q1) (128.2) (06-10 April)

Investors should not make any assumptions on the future on the basis of performance information and outlook.

Podcast from our Capital Markets Analysts

The Chinese Renminbi - The New Global Currency: February 2012
Listen to the podcast...
Read the article...

Listen to our latest China update

Coming soon...
Listen to our China and Renminbi Currency update call with Helen Lam and Joshua Smith
from 28 February 2012

Previous conference calls

15 November 2011: China Update


30 August 2011: China conference call

Christina Chung, Head of Chinese Equities & Senior Portfolio Manager of the Allianz RCM China fund


23 August 2011: Global Market Outlook

Neil Dwane, CIO Europe RCM


1 June 2011: China conference call

Christina Chung, Head of Chinese Equities & Senior Portfolio Manager of the Allianz RCM China fund


4 May 2011: Global Market Outlook

Neil Dwane, CIO Europe RCM


14 April 2011: Live Update from China

Guido Stiel, Co-Portfolio Manager, RCM

Analysis & Trends

Transition from a purely export-oriented economy to sustained economic growth.

Contributors

Biographies are available for all contributors.

Christina Chung
Head of Chinese Equities, RCM

Tom Hughes
BRIC Blog Editor

Michael Konstantinov
Senior Portfolio Manager, Allianz RCM BRIC Stars Fund and Allianz RCM Brazil Fund

Stefan Scheurer
Senior Analyst, Capital Markets

Guido Stiel
Senior Analyst, Capital Market Analyst

Weijun Yin
Product Specialist RCM Asia Pacific, Assistant Vice President

Archives: Q4 2011

24.10.11: Christina Chung
China set to avoid hard landing


20.10.11: Stefan Scheurer
Chinese whispers - Latest numbers explained


17.10.11: Michael Konstantinov
China: Why a soft landind looks likely


14.10.11: Christina Chung
Market Update - China


10.10.11: Michael Konstantinov
Is now the time to be buying in emerging markets?


16.09.11: Stefan Scheurer
China's concern: Inflation


15.09.11: Christina Chung
Allianz RCM China Fund update


14.09.11: Tom Hughes
Eastern promise and Western demise


01.09.11: Christina Chung
The China Insight Series: Impact of recent market volatility and portfolio positioning

 
 
 
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